Bitcoin solo mining calculator
Pick your machine, or type its hashrate: the maths uses the live Bitcoin network hashrate and the current bitcoin price.
And on Bitcoin Cash? … Compare
Your odds of finding at least one block
Each bar is compared with the 20-year chance.
Approximate hashrates and power draws: from my reviews, otherwise the maker’s figures. Replace the kWh price with yours.
The odds, machine by machine
| Machine | TH/s | W | Odds of a block per year, solo | Average earnings per year, pool | Electricity per year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitaxe Gamma | 1.2 | 18 | 1 in 16,000 | €14 | €32 |
| Bitaxe Gamma GT Turbo | 2.1 | 44 | 1 in 9,200 | €25 | €77 |
| Thor X1 | 2.1 | 22 | 1 in 9,120 | €25 | €39 |
| NerdQAxe++ | 4.8 | 80 | 1 in 3,990 | €57 | €140 |
| NerdQX 8T | 7.8 | 165 | 1 in 2,450 | €93 | €289 |
| NerdOctaxe | 9.7 | 145 | 1 in 1,980 | €115 | €254 |
| Avalon Nano 3 | 4 | 140 | 1 in 4,790 | €47 | €245 |
| Avalon Nano 3S | 6 | 140 | 1 in 3,190 | €71 | €245 |
| NerdNOS | 0.2 | 10 | 1 in 119,700 | €2 | €18 |
| Thor P2 | 10 | 153 | 1 in 1,910 | €119 | €268 |
| Antminer S21 | 200 | 3,500 | 1 in 96 | €2,375 | €6,132 |
| My shelf | 50 | 550 | 1 in 383 | €594 | €964 |
How it is worked out
Your share of the network is your hashrate divided by the whole Bitcoin network’s. About 144 blocks are found per day: at each block, your machine has that share of a chance. Over a year, the chance of finding at least one is 1 − e−144 × 365 × share.
The network hashrate comes from my node, via FindMyBlock. The bitcoin price and the latest block rewards come from mempool.space. Everything is recalculated on each visit.
What average earnings means
Average earnings are what you would get each year if luck were smoothed out, as in a regular pool. Solo, it is not: most years pay zero, and the lucky one pays a whole block. It is a lottery ticket paid in electricity, not a wage.
To go further: mining difficulty explained, what a Bitaxe really earns, solo or pool, and the machine comparison.
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